WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE EYEWALL 
SURROUNDING A 5-NM EYE. THE IMPROVED EYEWALL IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A 
212301Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 
MORE COMPACT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS MOST OF THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION 
HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY BASED ON 
THE SMALL EYE SEEN IN SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS DUE TO A CONTINUED OVERALL 
WEAKENING IN THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS BASED ON THE 
IMPROVEMENT IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN EXPANDING MOISTURE FIELD; HOWEVER, 
SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. TY 16W HAS IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING NER. THE MOST RECENT 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 
A BREAK IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE 
NORTH, WITH THE STR TO THE WEST OVER CHINA WEAKENING AND REORIENTING 
FURTHER TO THE WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VWS WILL DECREASE 
SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO 
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TYPHOON TO 
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES PAST THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE 
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED BY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
ABOVE THE 25TH LATITUDE. BY TAU 72, TY 16W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ONCE 
AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES MAINLAND JAPAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD 
TRAJECTORY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT 
TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND INTO COOLER WATERS IN THE SEA OF 
JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE WEAK 
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE. TY 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHTER AGREEMENT 
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NAVGEM JOINING THE BULK OF 
THE GUIDANCE, TRACKING THE TYPHOON JUST WEST OF OKINAWA. IN THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AS THE TYPHOON EMBEDS IN 
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM TRACK SPEEDS AS THE NER CONTINUES TO 
STRENGTHEN.//
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