WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM WEST 
OF TINIAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED 
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM 
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING EYE LENDING GOOD 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM RJTD AND PGTW. DESPITE THE STATIC 
DVORAK ESTIMATES, A 152100Z SSMIS REVEALS IMPROVED STRUCTURE BANDING 
STRUCTURE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF 60 
KNOTS IS FEASIBLE, HOWEVER, WILL HOLD AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW AND RE-
EVALUATE AT THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN 
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS 
FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW 
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI 
VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND 
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN 
OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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