WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE 
CONSOLIDATED LLCC THAT IS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 150817Z 
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE 
LLCC AND A 151157Z ASCAT SHOWS THE LLCC REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, 
BUT WITH GOOD STRUCTURE. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE 
ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE SYSTEM IN LOW VWS AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. 
TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT THE STR TO ELONGATE 
AND THUS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, VICE STRICTLY 
ZONAL. AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AN AVERAGE 
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF TS GONI IS FORECASTED THOUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, EXPECT NEAR RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
DUE TO VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, INCREASED VWS AND LOWER 
OHC VALUES WILL FORCE A SLIGHT DECAY OF TS 16W. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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