WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 
COAST OF CHINA. A 081129Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN 
CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AS WELL AS 
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY HAS LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON CORRESPONDING CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES TY 13W IS LOCATED AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. 
SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO 
DETERIORATE AS IT MAKES A FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA OVER THE NEXT 03 
TO 06 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, IT WILL ERODE 
RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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