WDPN33 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 
57//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS THAT 
THE LLCC REMAINS POORLY DEFINED, HOWEVER SOME WRAPPING CAN BE SEEN 
AS IT HAS TRACKED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, SUCH AS LOWER 
SSTS, WHICH are REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY ALL 
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED IN MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO 
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SEA 
OF JAPAN AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR. EXPECT FURTHER 
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LOW OHC AND INCREASED VWS. LAND 
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 24 WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS 
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 SOUTH OF HOKKAIDO.  AVAILABLE MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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