WDPN33 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 55// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN MODERATE VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES FLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND LATER CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING VWS, COLD ALONG-TRACK SSTS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (BELOW 26 CELSIUS), AND LAND INTERACTION OVER NORTHERN HONSHU WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN