WDPN33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 53// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 28 NM EYE. A 161226Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND SOME LOSS OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE JAPANESE COASTLINE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 10 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE STR AXIS TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 24, TY 11W WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND CONTINUE TO DECAY DUE TO COOL SSTS AND HIGHER VWS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TURNING TO EASTWARD BY TAU 48, AS TY NANGKA ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STR. FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS TY 11W TRACKS THROUGH THE TSUGARU STRAITS. ACCELERATING TO THE EAST, TY NANGKA WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO HIGH VWS AND UNFAVORABLE OHC. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN