WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 
26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS 
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY 
INTO THE LLCC. A DRY SLOT IS STILL APPARENT IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS A 080532Z NPP IMAGE WITH 
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS DUE 
TO A PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF 3.5 FROM ALL 
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH 10 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR 
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR 
EXTENSION BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 
12, TS LINFA WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS A WEAK STR BUILDING IN EASTERN 
CHINA TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS THROUGH GUANGDONG, EXPECT CONTINUED DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THERE IS 
A CHANCE, HOWEVER, THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BACK INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA AND DISSIPATE AT A LATER TIME AS THE VWS FROM THE 
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES FORCE TS 10W BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY VARIED IN THE TC TRACK DUE TO 
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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