WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 
14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM 
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
TRACKING OVER LUZON WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 050545Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE 
SHOWS CURVED BANDING OVER WATER WITH WEAKER, MORE DISORGANIZED CORE 
CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 
STEADY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 
10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TS 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON BUT IS FORECAST TO RE-
INTENSIFY AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER WATER AFTER TAU 12. BY TAU 24, THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING 
STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 
KNOTS.    
   C. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW MOVEMENT AND A WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED 
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 
THE TRACK SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT 
WITH THE BREAK IN THE STR AND POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION 
WITH TS 09W, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE TO APPROXIMATELY 310 NM BY 
TAU 120. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE OVERALL JTWC 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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