WDPN32 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 03// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE 021006Z 89GHZ GPM MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION - UP TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN TD 10W. HOWEVER, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM THE EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, CAUSING 10W TO TRACK SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD. THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL TRACK SPEEDS, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN