WDPN31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC WHILE A 212350Z AND 222308Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THAT CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE LLCC, WITH A HINT OF A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 35 KNOTS IN LIGHT OF A DVORAK INTENSITY OF 2.5 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND BETTER OVERALL STRUCTURE. VWS IS MODERATE TO HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MORE DISORGANIZED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, EXPECT AN OVERALL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TRACK LEADING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN