WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A DEVELOPING LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN OLDER 201127Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS AND DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. AS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST, EXPECT TD 08W TO BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHWARD ROUTE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THAT, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND LEIZHOU PENINSULA WILL CAUSE 08W TO DECAY. C. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT DEPICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN