WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM NORTHWEST 
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
A 26NM EYE, PUTTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC CURRENT POSITION. 
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON THE DVROAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PTGW AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY DOLPHIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON 
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST 
THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48. 
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH THIS TIME 
PERIOD AS LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS IN ADDITION TO DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS 
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, PEAKING AT 135KTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND START TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN 
TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGHER VWS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W WILL ACCELERATE INTO 
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WEAKEN AS THE VWS INCREASES AND SST 
DECREASES. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ETT BY TAU 96. DUE TO DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE BEING IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD  THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAID 
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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