WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM NORTHWEST 
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
FEATURE. THE EIR LOOP FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE 
CORE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AS IT FIGHTS DRY AIR TO THE WEST. A 
151016Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE 
SURROUNDED BY A SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE WITH THE MOST INTENSE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED ON A 151116Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE 
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE AND EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY A 
RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS AND A MAXIMUM WIND GUST 
OBSERVATION FROM PGUA OF 92 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) SOUTHERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
TYPHOON 07W IS TRACKING UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFIED STR. OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 
FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE. BY TAU 36, THE 
STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING TY 
07W TO BEGIN THE POLEWARD TURN. AS TY DOLPHIN ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, 
IT WILL GAIN AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AND 
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM 
WILL COMPLETE THE POLEWARD TURN AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS (25-30 
KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR 
TAU 96 WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM, STARTING ITS WEAKENING 
TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST.//
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