WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING 
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM 
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 112329Z METOP-B AND ASSOCIATED ASCAT SHOW THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND 
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07W IS IN AREA OF LOW VWS AND SOME 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS DOLPHIN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO START 
TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE 
NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND 07W BEGINS TO TURN INTO THE BREAK IN 
THE RIDGE. AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATES ARE FORECAST AS OHC REMAINS 
STEADY AND OVERALL OUTFLOW AND VWS IS FAIRLY STANDARD THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR DEEPENS AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO 
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS AND ANTICIPATED 
RADIAL OUTFLOW, EXPECT A JUMP IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH A 
POSSIBLE RI SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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