WDPN32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 06// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1178 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT APPEARED TO HAVE BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 072222Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ASSUME STEERING AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO OPEN. THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN