WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 
37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO 
ELONGATE WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS THE 
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE ON A COMMA APPEARANCE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE AMAMI RADAR WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC APPEARS TO 
BE BREAKING APART. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KTS DUE TO LOCAL 
OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (UP TO 60KTS) VWS. TY 
NOUL IS RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP 
STR TO THE EAST AND ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, 
BEGINNING ETT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE 
ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GO XT. TS 
NOUL WILL COMPLETE XT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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