WDPN31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 07// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 281105Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY THE EYEWALL. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE METOP-B IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS 04W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 125-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TS MAYSAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS REDUCED OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR INHIBITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN