WDPN31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 25// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 784 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STRIPPED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LEAVING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND FROM A 170958Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN