WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 
23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TC) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS DIMINISHED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162105Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE 
ALSO REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION, BUT DEPICTS A WELL-STRUCTURED LLCC. 
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW 
AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT 
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS BAVI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. INCREASING VWS WILL 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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