WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST 
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MSI 
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD 
MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH 
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN