WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM EAST 
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON A 142329Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND ASCAT DATA SHOWING 
40 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE (20 TO 
30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS BAVI IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
THE STR TO THE NORTH. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL 
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS BAVI WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH 
THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR 
THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
INCREASE, TS 03W WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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