WDPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 03// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112252Z METOP- B SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN 112251Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 30 TO 35 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANT GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, ASCAT IMAGE, AND AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 03W REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TS BAVI TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN