WDPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 110836Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE LOCATION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A 111017Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJELEIN AND A PREVIOUS (111017Z) ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECENT OVERALL DIFFLUENCE. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72 MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. EXPECT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS BEING THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT TC 03W TO BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT GREATLY DROPS NORTH OF 10N IN ADDITION TO A COOL POCKET OF WATER LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 150E. ALSO, VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A SMALL BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN