WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TY 02W IS WEAKENING, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 101800Z BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH DATA SHOWING THE LLCC HAS TRACKED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, SOMETHING PREVIOUSLY NOT SEEN IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED LOOP. A 102337Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORIENTED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS ASSESSED USING THE ABOVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN FIX LOCATIONS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS COMBATING THE 25-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. TY 02W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECURVE AROUND THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE CURRENTLY EXPOSED LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK IN UNDER THE CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE. AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE LLCC MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED TO THE NORTH EAST, AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. REGARDLESS, WITH THE DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASE IN VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAPID DECAY OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 24 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE LLCC AND WITH RESPECT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN