WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
REVEALS TY HIGOS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED 
EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS 
ORGANIZED. A RECENT 101105Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS ALSO REVEALS THE 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC 
WHILE DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. 
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SATELLITE DATA AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS 
BASED ON THE DECREASING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND AN ASSESSMENT OF 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS WHILE 
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES HAS 
PERSISTED. TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN 
SHIFTED DUE TO THE RECENT WEAKENING.
   B. TY HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A BREAK IN THE STR AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER CRESTING THE 
RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS 
TY 02W APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, FURTHER DECREASING 
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT PARAMETERS AND POSSIBLE 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE A STRONG WEAKENING PROCESS AS 
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND 
THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE WHICH ARE CONSISTENTLY THE WESTERNMOST 
OUTLIERS, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
FORECAST SCENARIO. THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE 
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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