WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS A 091751Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON A COMPOSITE OF ALL AGENCIES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WHICH IS 
OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING 
DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT 
FAVORABLE, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY, WITH 
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. OVERALL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING TO HIGH 
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE 
FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM 
AS VWS INCREASES NORTH OF THE 18TH PARALLEL AND THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP 
NORTH OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS 
WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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