WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM 
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081059Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE 
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND 
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL 
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS HIGOS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 02W IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEAR 
TERM AND THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS 
PARTICULARLY THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOWING TS 
02W TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. 
AFTERWARDS, TS 02W WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS 
STRONGER VWS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT 
DIFFERENCES WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS. JTWC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR, THE LEVEL OF 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
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