WDPN31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 04// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072107Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CURVED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONCURRING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TS HIGOS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THOUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN THE STORM WILL REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, TS 02W WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE TRANSVERSE BANDING NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ON THE MSI LOOP. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMNANTS WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. ECMWF, EGRR, AND JGSM REMAIN CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. GFS AND AEMN STILL RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE NAVGEM AND GFDN REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, THEY HAVE SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUPING. THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE MIDDLE GROUPING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.// NNNN