WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND MAY HAVE REFORMED
ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 24, THE TD WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JANGMI WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WHICH
WILL BRING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
CAUSING ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO THE MALAY
PENINSULA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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