WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT) 
WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD 
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING AN 111201Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, SSMIS IMAGE, AND 
PGTW FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND 
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA 
OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  OFFSET BY GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 
12 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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