WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED 
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS DEPICTED ON A 
062251Z GMP MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE 
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 90
 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM RJTD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER THE RELATIVELY SHORT VALLEYS OF 
SAMAR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD  
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL TRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION, 
THROUGH NORTHERN VISAYAS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH 
PASSING TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. EXPECT TY HAGUPIT TO 
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SIBUYAN SEA. BY TAU 48, TY 22W WILL 
REEMERGE IN THE VICINITY OF LUBAND ISLAND IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 
HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, EXPECT TY HAGUPIT TO TRACK RAPIDLY 
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR THAT 
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. 
DUE TO THE AGREEMENT OF MODELS THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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