WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS SOME CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH 
SOME WEAK BANDING ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION 
IS BASED ON MSI ANIMATION AND 230006Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH 
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL 
REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE SYSTEMS WEAKENING TREND, PARTIALLY DUE 
TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS 
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FUNG-WONG IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE LAST PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND ACCELERATING AS THE 
SYSTEM IS ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE LATEST AMSU-B (231747Z) 
CROSS SECTION DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON COLD-CORE LOW 
CHARACTERISTICS. EXPECT TS 16W TO CONTINUE TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COMPLETING 
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH JTWC TRACK CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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