WDPN32 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 13// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 201201Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A LARGE ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS UNDER STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING STR DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS, BUT LAND INTERACTION AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN TAIWAN, WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO PEAK INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. BY TAU 24, TS 16W WILL BE WELL INLAND AND IS FORECAST TO TURN ON A MORE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR REORIENTS. CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TAIWANESE AND CHINESE TERRAINS AND INCREASING VWS, TS 16W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN