WDPN32 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP SHOWING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ON A WARM SPOT ON THE 192233Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS IN A COL AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHORTENED TO 72 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE RAPID DISSIPATION IS DISCUSSED IN PARA 3.B. BELOW. B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 AND DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN BEFORE TURNING ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE EASTERN CHINESE SEABOARD AS THE STR BUILDS BACK. DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TAIWANESE AND CHINESE TERRAINS AND INCREASING VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN