WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT CONTINUES TO 
STRUGGLE AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. A 191000Z SSMIS 
MICROWAVE 37 GHZ IMAGE ADDITIONALLY REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC WHICH 
HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR 
LOOP ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT 
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS 
THAT INDICATED 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TS FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE 
NEXT DAY AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND ANOTHER STR 
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND 
WEAKENS. TS 15W WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS ACROSS THE LUZON STRAIT AS WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS 
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST 
OF TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36 AND WEAKEN AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF 
TAIWAN IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS 
INDICATING THE NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
PROCEED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR IN THIS PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. JGSM, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE RIGHT 
MOST OUTLIERS KEEPING THE STR MORE POLEWARD ORIENTED ALLOWING THE 
SYSTEM TO PROCEED MORE NORTH. GFDN, NAVGEM, GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEAN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STR 
ORIENTED THAT AMPLIFIES DRIVING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWEST TOWARDS 
MAINLAND CHINA. AFTER TAU 72 AND LAND FALL INTO CHINA, THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH 
WILL INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ACCELERATE THE 
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST, COMPLETING ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE THE VARYING EXTENT OF STR 
DEPICTED IN THE MODEL TRACKERS.//
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