WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH GOOD 
BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 172331Z AND 
172120Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED CENTRAL 
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS 
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT. FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 16W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING STR NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS 
THE STR BREAKS DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
AND SLOW DOWN UNDER THE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 
WHILE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE 
PROXIMITY OF THE TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON COULD 
POTENTIALLY LIMIT ITS MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT THAT TIME.  MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WITH SIGNIFICANT 
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND. 
JGSM, JENS, AND GFDN FAVOR A FASTER RECURVE SCENARIO AT TAU 48 
WHEREAS HWRF AND NAVGEM HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH UNDER 
A SIGNIFICANTLY RE-BUILDING THE STR. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE 
COAMPS MODELS ARE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A WIDER RECURVE AT TAU 48 THAN 
THE JAPANESE MODELS AND A TRACK THROUGH ISHIGAKI-JIMA. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
THROUGH TAU 48 AND SLIGHTLY POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE MORE 
LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE STR WILL NOT BUILD IN AS STRONGLY AS NAVGEM 
ET AL. SUGGESTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, REACHING 
AS FAR SOUTH AS TAIWAN, BEGINS TO ABSORB THE SYSTEM, ACCELERATING 
FUNG-WONG NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE 
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE 
SOUTH OF KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET, 
SEEN IN ALL MODEL FIELDS, THAT IS SEMI-STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
JAPAN.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE DIVIDED IN THESE LATER TAUS 
WITH THE JAPANESE MODELS DEPICTING A RECURVE TO THE EAST OF THE 
RYUKYUS AND THE GFS MODELS 16W TRACKING WEST OF THE FIRST ISLAND 
CHAIN. NAVGEM AND HWRF CONTINUE THE STORM ON A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY, 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY STRONG BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. 
JTWC'S FORECAST IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS IN THE 
EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE STR TO THE 
EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDING IN MORE SLOWLY AND NOT AS STRONG. DUE TO 
FAIR INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE 
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO, THERE IS OVERALL LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
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