WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) 
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 12W REMAINS A VERY LARGE LOW 
PRESSURE AREA (NEAR 600 NM DIAMETER); HOWEVER, ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031257Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A 
WEAKENING AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO 
INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS MARGINAL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF 
KOREA INDICATE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP 
NEAR 993 MB. AS EXPECTED, SURFACE WINDS AT KUNSAN HAVE REMAINED WEAK 
DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND 
METOP-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEAK 
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR).   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD NAKRI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST 
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS 
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS 
EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST 
TRACK.//
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