WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF 
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TIGHTLY-CURVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 
072325Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THINNING CONVECTION OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND AN INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE TIGHTLY-WRAPPING TOWARDS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. 
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTLOW. TY 11W IS TRACKING 
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
LOCATED SOUTH OF CENTRAL JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, THE 
STR IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS 
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE 
SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT). TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT BEGINS TO 
INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENHANCING 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR 
MAKING LANDFALL INTO SHIKOKU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TY 11W 
IS WELL INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS 
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OVER WESTERN JAPAN. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES 
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, TY HALONG WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE 
IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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