WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF 
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201111Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING 
INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION 
AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TY 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE 
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS AND A 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. 
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TYPHOON MATMO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 
LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN TAIWAN AFTER TAU 60 AND BEGIN ITS WEAKENING 
TREND.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE 
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO 
TURN POLEWARD. TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND BY TAU 96 AND THEN RE-
CURVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. RAPID 
DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE  
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN