WDPN31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 09// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191123Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS JAPAN. THIS TROUGH WILL MODIFY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP TY 10W ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN AFTER TAU 84. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.// NNNN