WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE EXPOSED LLCC APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ERRATICALLY AND IS 
NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (20 
KNOTS), SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TS 03W IS UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, 
NAMELY, THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST 
AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. 
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL 
FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY, ERRATIC TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED QUASI-STATIONARY, ERRATIC 
MOTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY 
WITH A 245-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST 
FAVORS A GENERALLY NORTHWARD, SLOW TRACK CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS, HOWEVER, A TRACK FURTHER WEST, CLOSER TO GUAM IS 
POSSIBLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF THE 
SYSTEM PROVIDING A POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS 
AS VWS WEAKENS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS FAXAI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND 
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 03W SHOULD 
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND SHOULD 
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR 
AGREEMENT DUE, PRIMARILY, TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM MOTION. 
THEREFORE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
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