WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI) 
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(IR) DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT IS 
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310940Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ALONG 
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON 
THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE 
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CDO OBSCURING THE EXACT 
POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED 
UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL 
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 02W HAS CREATED A 
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS HELPING THE 
CONVECTION MAINTAIN DESPITE THE VWS. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYERED 
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TD KAJIKI WILL START TO TRACK ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THIS LAND INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT 
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. AFTER WHICH, THE 
PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO 
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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