WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING 
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 302324Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN 
BOUNDARY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 02W HAS 
CREATED A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. THE VWS HAS KEPT DEEP 
CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. TD 02W IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF 
THE DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE TRACK SPEED IN A MARGINAL 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DEVELOPMENT WILL 
BE HINDERED. WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE 
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE 
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PERSISTENT VWS, 
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AND IMPACTS TO THE LLCC STRUCTURE, AS IT CROSSES OVER 
THE PHILIPPINES, WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM 
BY TAU 48. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN