WDPN31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 07// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS QUICKLY SHALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191117Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF A BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TD 01W HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO PERSISTENTLY STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TD 01W HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT AND INDICATES A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 24.// NNNN