WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (LINGLING) 
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
365 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEEP CENTRAL 
CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. A 182146Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND 
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. TD 01W HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. TD 01W IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW AND ERRATIC 
MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO 
CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OVER 
WATER PRIOR TO TAU 24.//
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