WDPN33 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 08// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND EXPANDING CORE CONVECTION. A 042235Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS FORECAST BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 110-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. TY 31W WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT NEAR 115 KNOT INTENSITY. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 160-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN