WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 252249Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL-
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THIS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TY 28W
IS TRACKING UNDER STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. TY 28W 
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 18 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO 
THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
THIS STRATEGY IS USED TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK 
TENDENCIES.//
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