WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED 23 NM 
EYE SURROUNDED BY A THICK EYEWALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THERE 
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT THINNING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON STEADY DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF THE SAME VALUE AND 
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). STY 28W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 
12, A PRESSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BEGIN 
TO MODIFY THE STR. THIS WILL CAUSE STY 28W TO INITIALLY TRACK TO THE 
NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN A GENERAL RECURVE 
SCENARIO. DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND INCREASING VWS WILL START 
A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, STY 28W 
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT). FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL 
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ETT 
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AND THEN COMPLETE BY TAU 72 WHEN THE 
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. 
DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE WELL UNDERSTOOD STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS 
LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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