WDPN33 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EVEN AS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH HAS REMAINED THE SAME.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE FROM A 241034Z SSMI/S PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY VERY CLOSE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS CRESTED THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND IS NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
COMMENCE AROUND TAU 24, WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM-FORCE
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS STRATEGY IS TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK
TENDENCIES.    //
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